West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis, edited by Abdulai Jalloh, Gerald C. Nelson, Timothy S. Thomas, Robert Zougmoré, and Harold Roy-Macauley, was published in April 2013 by IFPRI. The book “explores how climate change will increase the efforts needed to achieve sustainable food security throughout the region”, according to IFPRI. In this brief post, I focus on the results for Senegal. That chapter was written by Mamadou Khouma, Abdulai Jalloh, Timothy S. Thomas, and Gerald C. Nelson.
Yield change for rainfed groundnuts between 2000 and 2050, calculated using crop models with the MIROC A1B climate model
In the book, the authors use two types of models to evaluate the impact of climate change. Using the DSSAT crop model system together with four different climate models, the book reports that apart from technological change, Senegal will experience yield reduction across most of the country for rainfed groundnuts. Using the second model, IMPACT, a global model of supply and demand which allows for technological change, maize yields will rise by around 40 percent between 2010 and 2050, and groundnut yields by around 60 percent. While this sounds very positive, once population growth is taken into account, the production gains barely keep pace, and the yield impacts of climate change are felt by what could have been.
Several products are downloadable for the interested reader: