Monthly Archives: July 2013

West African Agriculture and Climate Change Country Summaries in French

Unfortunately, the links for the 2-page country summaries in French for West African Agriculture and Climate Change are not in one convenient location on their original website, so I provide the links here for ease of use.

Cover imageTwo-page summary (French) of the Benin chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Burkina Faso chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Cote d’Ivoire chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Ghana chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Guinea chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Liberia chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Niger chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Nigeria chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Senegal chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Sierra Leone chapter
Two-page summary (French) of the Togo chapter

Nigeria’s Prospects for Agriculture Under Climate Change

West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis, edited by Abdulai Jalloh, Gerald C. Nelson, Timothy S. Thomas, Robert Zougmoré, and Harold Roy-Macauley, was published in April 2013 by IFPRI. The book reports on two modeling approaches used to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture, and the likely impact in terms of production and food self-sufficiency. The Nigeria chapter was written by Shuaib M. Hassan, Celestine E. Ikuenobe, Abdulai Jalloh, Gerald C. Nelson, and Timothy S. Thomas.

Nigeria rainfed sorghum yield change, 2000-2050, CSIRO A1 Legend for yield changes from DSSAT crop model, 2000-2050
Yield change for rainfed sorghum between 2000 and 2050, calculated using crop models with the CSIRO A1B climate model

In the book, the authors use two types of models to evaluate the impact of climate change. Using the DSSAT crop model system together with four different climate models, the book reports that apart from technological change, Nigeria will experience significant yield reductions across most of the country for rainfed sorghum. However, the second model, IMPACT, a global model of supply and demand which allows for technological change, is much more optimistic for sorghum production. IMPACT anticipates that sorghum will overcome current constraints in production and show significant successful adaptation to climate change. In the IMPACT model, sorghum yields are predicted to rise by around 80 percent between 2010 and 2050.

Several products are downloadable for the interested reader:

Togo’s Challenges in Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

In April 2013, IFPRI published a new book called West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis. The editors of the book — Abdulai Jalloh (CORAF), Gerald C. Nelson (IFPRI), Timothy S. Thomas (IFPRI), Robert Zougmoré (CCAFS), and Harold Roy-Macauley (CORAF) — endeavor to help policymakers better understand the impact that climate change will likely have upon each West African country featured in the book. If policymakers have a better grasp of some of the technical issues, they will be more able to prepare for climate change and more likely to make good policies which will help farmers. In this brief post, I focus on the Togo chapter, which was written by Abiziou Tchinguilou, Abdulai Jalloh, Timothy S. Thomas, and Gerald C. Nelson.

Togo rainfed maize yield change, 2000-2050, MIROC A1Legend for yield changes from DSSAT crop model, 2000-2050The map shows yield change for rainfed maize between 2000 and 2050, calculated using crop models with the MIROC A1B climate model

Using the DSSAT crop model system together with four different climate models, the impact of climate change (without allowing for technological change) on Togo’s primary crop, rainfed maize, will lead to yield reductions nationally of anywhere from 3 percent to 22 percent, when grown in the climate of 2050 instead of the climate of the 1950 to 2000 period. The largest loss came in the climate model which predicted significant reduction in annual rainfall. The map to the right shows results from the MIROC climate model which had results roughly equal to the average of the four models.

The authors also present the results from a second model, IMPACT, a global model of supply and demand which allows for technological change. In that model, maize yields will rise by around 70 percent between 2010 and 2050. While the model does not specify the exact technological changes that will take place, they would likely include increased nutrient application and improved seeds.

Several products are downloadable for the interested reader:

The Hybrid Researcher-Manager and Other Ideas for Harnessing the Potential of the New CGIAR

These views are of the author only, and do not represent those of IFPRI or its divisions, or the CGIAR or any of its programs.

The potential of a more fully integrated CGIAR is to have experts from many different fields working together closely to accomplish goals that are more targeted than what might have been accomplished under the old system.  Yet to realize the potential, collaboration has to be more than an afterthought.  In my relatively brief 3 years in the CGIAR, I have seen levels of integration increase, yet much of the increase seems to come with one institute taking the lion’s share of the funds and credit, and subcontracting a portion of the work.  This tends to allow one institute to function in its strength, and the supporting institute to do rather mundane work.

Smokestacks polluting the atmosphereAs I was spending time working on a concept paper focusing on the Red River Delta (RRD) of Vietnam, I realized that to focus on the RRD as a landscape requires bringing in expertise from many institutes right from the beginning.  IFPRI’s expertise is in economics and policy analysis, but development at the landscape level in RRD requires experts who understand livestock (ILRI), rice (IRRI), maize (CIMMYT), fish (WorldFish), and perhaps perennials and agroforestry (ICRAF).  In order to get the best from collaborating institutions requires that they be brought in right on the ground-level, so they can help shape the research to reflect the strengths they bring to bear.

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