The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) today released a discussion paper that did a detailed analysis of adaptation options for agriculture in Bangladesh. The report was written by Timothy S. Thomas, Khandaker Mainuddin, Catherine Chiang, Aminur Rahman, Anwarul Haque, Nazria Islam, Saad Quasem, and Yan Sun. The study’s authors were researchers at either IFPRI or the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies.
The study used several instruments to evaluate the impact of climate change. They included the use of crop models together with climate models to evaluate various adaptation options which included changing crop varieties, changing planting dates, increasing fertilizer use, and looking at the yield impact of irrigation over precipitation only. The study also included a detailed household survey and a release of a special version of IFPRI’s SPAM dataset (You and Wood 2006; You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra 2006, 2009).
The following table briefly summarizes the crop modeling results. The reader will note that the largest negative impact of climate change is on wheat, with more than a 20 percent reduction under high fertilizer use. Yield impacts under high fertilizer use are generally more adverse than under low fertilizer use (in percent changes) — though the yields with high levels of fertilizer are still better than for low levels of fertilizer.
One intriguing result is the improved boro rice yields under climate change and high fertilizer levels with adaptation. This will be the subject of a future post.
The discussion paper can be downloaded from IFPRI’s website.