Nigeria’s Prospects for Agriculture Under Climate Change

West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis, edited by Abdulai Jalloh, Gerald C. Nelson, Timothy S. Thomas, Robert Zougmoré, and Harold Roy-Macauley, was published in April 2013 by IFPRI. The book reports on two modeling approaches used to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture, and the likely impact in terms of production and food self-sufficiency. The Nigeria chapter was written by Shuaib M. Hassan, Celestine E. Ikuenobe, Abdulai Jalloh, Gerald C. Nelson, and Timothy S. Thomas.

Nigeria rainfed sorghum yield change, 2000-2050, CSIRO A1 Legend for yield changes from DSSAT crop model, 2000-2050
Yield change for rainfed sorghum between 2000 and 2050, calculated using crop models with the CSIRO A1B climate model

In the book, the authors use two types of models to evaluate the impact of climate change. Using the DSSAT crop model system together with four different climate models, the book reports that apart from technological change, Nigeria will experience significant yield reductions across most of the country for rainfed sorghum. However, the second model, IMPACT, a global model of supply and demand which allows for technological change, is much more optimistic for sorghum production. IMPACT anticipates that sorghum will overcome current constraints in production and show significant successful adaptation to climate change. In the IMPACT model, sorghum yields are predicted to rise by around 80 percent between 2010 and 2050.

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